H-1B Lottery Probability Calculator
Calculate your odds of being selected in the H-1B visa lottery based on degree level and registration count.
Results
Visualization
How It Works
The H-1B visa has an annual cap of 85,000 (65,000 regular + 20,000 US advanced degree exemption). With registrations reaching 400,000-780,000 in recent years, selection rates have dropped significantly. Having a US masters degree gives you two chances in the lottery.
The Formula
Single Odds = Cap / Total Registrations
US Masters Odds = 1 - (1 - Advanced/Total) x (1 - Regular/Remaining)
Multi-Employer = 1 - (1 - Single)^Employers
US Masters Odds = 1 - (1 - Advanced/Total) x (1 - Regular/Remaining)
Multi-Employer = 1 - (1 - Single)^Employers
Variables
- 65,000 — Regular H-1B cap
- 20,000 — Additional cap for US advanced degree holders
- Registrations — Total electronic registrations submitted in the lottery
Example
With 480,000 registrations, a bachelor-degree holder has roughly 65,000/480,000 = 13.5% odds. A US masters holder gets about 18% odds (two lottery shots).
Tips
- USCIS runs the lottery in March each year for October 1 start dates.
- Multiple employer registrations are legal but scrutinized by USCIS.
- Cap-exempt employers (universities, research orgs) skip the lottery entirely.
- Consider O-1 or L-1 as H-1B alternatives that have no cap.
- The beneficiary-centric selection system (2025+) reduces abuse of multiple registrations.