Green Card Lottery Odds Calculator

Calculate your odds of winning the Diversity Visa (DV) lottery based on your region and number of entries.

Results

Visualization

How It Works

The Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery makes 55,000 green cards available annually to people from countries with historically low immigration rates to the US. The odds depend on your world region, as each region gets an allocation proportional to its underrepresentation. Entering multiple years compounds your chances.

The Formula

Single Year Probability = Visas / (Region Entries x Overselection Factor)
Cumulative Probability = 1 - (1 - Single Year)^Years

Variables

  • Region Entries — Approximate number of entries from your geographic region
  • 55,000 — Total diversity visas available worldwide per year
  • 3.5x — Overselection factor (more people selected than visas available)

Example

An applicant from Oceania (smaller pool of ~500,000) has roughly 1-in-32 odds per year. Over 10 years of entering, cumulative odds reach about 27%.

Tips

  • Oceania has the best odds due to the smallest applicant pool.
  • Married couples should each submit a separate entry to double their chances.
  • Being selected does not guarantee a visa. You must complete the full process.
  • Countries like India, China, Mexico, and UK are excluded from the lottery.
  • The lottery is free to enter at dvprogram.state.gov. Beware of scam websites.

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